Measuring the Atmosphere from Inside the Moon's Shadow
A total solar eclipse and its lunar shadow over Valencia de Don Juan turn a panorama into an experiment on the height and cooling of the atmosphere.
Topic
Climate
Climate systems, evidence, uncertainty, and interpretation.
How Climate Change Pseudoscience Became Publicly Accepted
The I recently wrote an OpEd for the Epoch Times which tries to succinctly capture my main grievances with the global warming scare. Here is brought again with a few comments (and references) added at its end.
Critique of “Discrepancy in scientific authority and media visibility of climate change scientists and contrarians”
This paper made some waves in the Media recently. It is based on highly biased data selection, and therefore flawed to its bone. It shouldn't have passed refereeing.
Solar Debunking Arguments are Defunct
An article interviewing me was removed yesterday from forbes. Instead, they published an article by Meteorologist Prof. Marshall Shepherd that claims that the sun has no effect on climate. That article, however, falls to the same pitfalls that pointed out on my blog yesterday.…
Forbes censored an interview with me
A few days ago I was interviewed by Doron Levin, for an article to appear online on forbes.com. After having seen a draft (to make sure that I am quoted correctly), I told him good luck with getting it published, as I doubted it will. Why? Because a year ago I was interviewed by…
22 minute talk summarizing my views on global warming
Just over a week ago I gave a 20 minute talk (which lasted almost 22 min) about the role that the sun plays in global warming in the Heartland institute's climate conference in DC. Here it is brought again for posterity.
My experience at the German Bundestag's Environment Committee in a pre-COP24 discussion
Last week I had the opportunity to talk in front of the Environment committee of the German Bundestag. It was quite an interesting experience, and frankly, something I would have considered unlikely before receiving the invitation. It was in fact the first time a climate…
Climate debate at the Cambridge Union - The Video
Two months ago I wrote about the Cambridge Union Debate I participated in. The Cambridge Union has meanwhile posted the debate online. Here is my part of it. (It starts at 32m31s.) [VIDEO::https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=youtu.be&v=PL2gRaXMMkA&t=32m31s] I should add that…
Finally! The missing link between exploding stars, clouds and climate on Earth
Our new results published today in nature communications provide the last piece of a long studied puzzle. We finally found the actual physical mechanism linking between atmospheric ionization and the formation of cloud condensation nuclei. Thus, we now understand the complete…
Climate debate at the Cambridge Union - a 10 minute summary of the main problems with the standard alarmist polemic
Last week I participated in an interesting debate that was held at the Cambridge Union, the oldest debating club in the world (dating back to 1815. The invite was to be on the side opposing the proposition “This house would rather cool the planet than warm the economy”. Although…
The Sunspots 2.0? Irrelevant. The Sun, still is.
After being asked by 5 independent people about the new sunspot number reconstruction and that it doesn’t show that the sun should have contributed any warming to the 20 th century, I decided to write about it here. I have one word to describe it – irrelevant. It is also a good…
Bill Nye, the not-so-good-science guy
Bill "the science guy" Nye says that I am a denier. I recently stumbled on a transcript of Bill “the science guy” Nye’s interview on CNN last week. In it, he said that climate skeptics (i.e., people like myself), are at least as bad as people who deny that smoking causes cancer.…
Euthanizing Overholt et al.: How bad can a bad paper be?
Last month I visited the U of Washington to give a talk in which I discussed the effects of cosmic rays on climate. At the end of it, not one, but two people independently asked me about Overholt et al. , which supposedly ruled out the idea that passages through the galactic…
Sights from a Field Trip in the Milky Way: From Paleoclimatology to Dark Matter
I was recently asked to write an article to “The Institute Letter” of Institute for Advanced Study at Princeton, where I am spending a wonderful sabbatical year. It briefly describes a very interesting discovery that my colleagues and I made, which is that the 32 million year…
A friend has passed away
I just found out that a dear friend had passed away. Nigel Calder was the voice of rationality within a sea of extreme, something which is very much missing in the global warming debate. He didn't accept things for granted, but on the other hand didn't make extreme claims in the…
The worst of the BEST
I was asked by quite a few people about my opinion on the BEST analysis of Richard Muller and his group in Berkeley. Since I didn’t want to keep my friends without an answer, I took a more careful look into the analysis. Here is what I think of it. [Edit 2019: I noticed that the…
Does the global temperature lag CO2? More flaws in the Shakun et al. paper in Nature.
Over the past two weeks, perhaps a dozen people asked me about the recently published paper of Shakun et al. in Nature. It allegedly demonstrates that the global temperature followed CO 2 around the warming associated with the last interglacial warming, between 20 to 10 thousand…
Causes of Climate Change - Poll Results
Out of curiosity, I opened a few weeks ago a poll asking the visitors of this site, what do they think is the primary cause of global warming. 429 people answered the poll (thanks to all of you!). The results can be summarized as follows. First, the visitors of this site have the…
On IPCCs exaggerated climate sensitivity and the emperor’s new clothes
A few days ago I had a very pleasant meeting with Andrew Bolt . He was visiting Israel and we met for an hour in my office. During the discussion, I mentioned that the writers of the recent IPCC reports are not very scientific in their conduct and realized that I should write…
What is your expertise, and what is the cause of 20th century climate change?
Archived results of the original ScienceBits expertise and climate-change-cause poll.
Climategate 2.0
A few weeks ago, the hacker/whistleblower has done it again. A new release of a large amount of e-mails from the same source (University of East Anglia) has surfaced in Russia. It is most likely from the same original batch because the last of the new e-mails is from 2009. Here…
The CLOUD is clearing
The CLOUD collaboration from CERN finally had their results published in nature, showing that ionization increases the nucleation rate of condensation nuclei. The results are very beautiful and they demonstrate, yet again, how cosmic rays (which govern the amount of atmospheric…
From Masada to the Messinian Salinity Crisis
Masada, the Dead Sea, the Messinian Salinity Crisis and Augustus Ceasar, all in one post.
"There is nothing new under the Sun" an article about 20th century global warming
After a long lull in activity, I decided it's about time I write an update about my thoughts on global warming. Here it is.
20th century global warming - "There is nothing new under the Sun" - Part III
Cosmic Rays and Climate
20th century global warming - "There is nothing new under the Sun" - Part II
This is the second of the three part article on the climatic role of the sun.
20th century global warming - "There is nothing new under the Sun" - Part I
With the exception of those who have been living in a dark cave, it is well known that Earth has warmed over the 20 th century. Anyone who reads papers or watches TV knows that it is humans who are those responsible for this warming. According to most media sources, and…
Expert credibility in climate change?
I recently stumbled upon one of the most meaningless papers I have ever seen. The paper "proves" that the scientists advocating an anthropogenic greenhouse warming (AGW) are statistically more credible than the "unconvinced". Their main goal is to convince people that they should…
To the hebrew readers of sciencebits לקוראי העברית של סאינס-ביטס
(On the hebrew translation of the "Chilling Stars") לאור העובדה שלא מעט מקוראי האתר בעברית מתענינים בנושא של השפעת השמש על האקלים, מצאתי לנכון "לפרסם" תרגום לעברית של הספר "chilling stars" של הנריק סוונסמרק ונייג`ל קולדר, שהם ידידי. הספר "הכוכבים המקררים" יצא לאור זה עתה בהוצאת…
Earth Day Blackout in Israel vs. Al Gore
A week ago was Earth day, and just like the trend elsewhere, Israel joined with an hour long blackout. In principle, I am very much in favor of environmental awareness, and if it brings some, so be it. But if you ask me, overall, this event is a rather pointless gimmick. Why?
The oceans as a calorimeter
I few months ago, I had a paper accepted in the Journal of Geophysical Research. Since its repercussions are particularly interesting for the general public, I decided to write about it. It's called, using the "Oceans as a Calorimeter to quantify the solar radiative forcing".
Auroras in Lapland
I recently attended the 3rd Space Climate Symposium which took place in Saariselkä, about 250 km north of the arctic circle in Finnish Lapland. Because of the prolonged solar minimum, my hopes were for a high auroral activity, but my expectations were not. Luckily, it was my…
Is the causal link between cosmic rays and cloud cover really dead??
Just recently, Sloan and Wolfendale published a paper in Environmental Research Letters, called "Testing the proposed causal link between cosmic rays and cloud cover". In the Institute of Physics Press Release, it said, "New research has deal a blow to the skeptics who argue that…
More slurs from realclimate.org
Realclimate.org continues with its same line of attack. Wishfulclimate.org writers try again and again to concoct what appears to be deep critiques against skeptic arguments, but end up doing a very shallow job. All in the name of saving the world. How gallant of them. This time…
Open convection cells over the Negev?
Jerusalem was under siege, again. Last time it was Bush. This time, it was snow because of which we had two snow days. So, I didn't have to teach and instead could build a snowman with my kids. I could also look at the rain radar, which appeared to exhibit a few interesting…
The Hebrew University debate on Global Warming
The panel. From left to right: Prof. Colin Price, Prof. Nathan Paldor, Prof. Dan Yakir, and myself. On Sunday last week, a global warming debate was held at the Hebrew University, in front of a large public audience. The speakers included myself, and Prof. Nathan Paldor from the…
On the formation of ship tracks
On of the interesting manmade climate phenomenon is that of Ship Tracks , whereby a ship, with all the exhaust particles it releases, can change the characteristics of clouds in its wake. Last week, I saw first hand how a boat can pollute so much.
The inconvenient truth about the Ice core Carbon Dioxide Temperature Correlations
One of the "scientific" highlights in Al Gore's movie is the discussion about the clear correlation between CO 2 and temperature, as is obtained in ice cores. He leads his audience to beleive that this correlation implies a clear CO 2 →ΔT link, but does it really?
Parhelic Circles, Ice Haloes and Sun dogs over Jerusalem
A few weeks ago, a few students saw a nice phenomenon in the sky. Knowing I liked this kind of stuff (and that I may be able to explain it), they called me out of the office to look at the sky. Above us was a nice and almost complete parhelic circle . Unlike the usual 22° halo…
Kelvin Helmholtz Clouds in the Jerusalem Skies
Kelvin Helmholtz cloud rolls Yesterday, I noticed (and photographed ;-) ) Kelvin-Helmholtz Clouds forming in Jerusalem's sky. This instability arises when very large shears are present in the velocity fields, in this case, just below the jet stream.
On the IPCC's summary for policy makers, and on getting interviewed without noticing
Yesterday I was surprised to find out that the IPCC didn't really come out with the Fourth Assessment Report (4AR). I was also surprised to find an article with something which appeared to look like an interview of me. Since I am not senile (getting there, but not just yet) I…
Climate Sensitivity - an interesting IPCC bias
Some time ago, I noticed an interesting bias in the TAR scientific report (the third assessment report of the IPCC - the intergovernmental panel for climate change) regarding the climate sensitivity, that is by how much the average global temperature will increase if we double…
On Climate Sensitivity and why it is probably small
What is climate sensitivity? The equilibrium climate sensitivity refers to the equilibrium change in average global surface air temperature following a unit change in the radiative forcing. This sensitivity (often denoted as λ) therefore has units of °C/(W/m 2 ). Often, instead &…
"SKY" experiment demonstrates link between cosmic rays and condensation nuclei!
After a long embargo, results from the Danish National Space Center (DNSC) Sky experiment were finally published in the Proceedings of the Royal Society. The results demonstrate a clear link between cosmic ray induced atmospheric ionization and the formation of condensation…
Comments on nature's "A cosmic connection"
Last week, a report by Jeff Kanipe appeared in nature . In it, Kanipe explains the solar → cosmic-ray → climate connection, and the planned CLOUD experiment in CERN, expected to finally resolve the issue. Given that my work is mentioned in the review, I through I should mention a…
The Critique of Knud Jahnke and a New Meteor Exposure Age Analysis
General Remarks The manuscript submitted by Jahnke is an attempt to repeat analyses previously carried by myself (Shaviv PRL, 2002, New Astronomy, 2003). Although Jahnke raises a few interesting aspects, his analysis excludes several critical problems, because of which he obtains…
Celestial Climate Driver: A Perspective from Four Billion Years of the Carbon Cycle
My colleague and friend, Prof. Jan Veizer of the University of Ottawa, has written a review on the climatic role of carbon dioxide, cosmic rays and solar variability over different time scale. Unlike other material you will find on this web site, which was written with my…
Standing on ice - When is it possible?
Ever wondered whether it was sufficiently cold for sufficiently long to allow you to stand on ice, without falling in? I once did. Here is an estimate for the duration required to reach a given thickness. Actually, it is a lower limit, since we assume a few simplifying…
Jumbo Deluxe Hail
Here are some pictures and a physicists take of a fantastic hail storm which took place west of Jerusalem in October 2004. The largest stones were up to 5 cm in diameter and several car windshields were shattered!
The coming of another ice-age?
A few days ago I stumbled upon an interesting article from Time magazine, entitled: "Another Ice Age?" . No it is not a recent article. It is politically incorrect to talk about global cooling these days. The article appeared in 1974, after "three decades of cooling" prompted…
Exhale Condensation Calculator
Determine whether mixed exhaled and outside air condenses and estimate the mixing range and cloud-water content.
Snow probability calculator
Estimate the melting temperature and probability that falling precipitation reaches the ground as snow.
Snow at above freezing temperatures
Did you ever wonder how can it snow at above freezing temperatures? Well, the naive explanation is that it simple takes time for the snowflakes to melt once they penertrate above freezing air, as they descent downwards to the ground. As it turns out, this is the reaons why hail…
Lightning Strikes without a storm!
When visiting the president, I learned about a strange event that was recorded by the Columbia space shuttle: A lightning flash without a thunderstorm! What could it be??
Cosmic Rays and Climate
A quick review of the cosmic ray / climate link.
Carbon Dioxide or Solar Forcing?
Is 20th century global warming due to anthropogenic sources (i.e., greenhouse gasses) or natural variability? Find out here.
The Milky Way Galaxy's Spiral Arms and Ice-Age Epochs and the Cosmic Ray Connection
On long time scales, it appears that our journey through the Milky Way is responsible for large climate variations. Each time we pass through spiral arms of the galaxy, we witness a higher flux of cosmic rays, which in turn reduce the global temperature. Read more about the…
Frost Dendrites
Under which conditions can you get frost dendrites on your window?
Condensation of your exhaled breath
Ever wondered why and when does your exhaled breath condense?
Weather related physics
Weather and climate physics articles, explanations, and calculators.