"There is nothing new under the Sun" an article about 20th century global warming - my point of view


After a long lull in activity, I decided it's about time I write an update about my thoughts on global warming. Here it is.

20th century global warming - "There is nothing new under the Sun" - Part I
20th century global warming - "There is nothing new under the Sun" - Part II
20th century global warming - "There is nothing new under the Sun" - Part III

Incidentally, this article is based on the adaptation (and translation) of another article I wrote to an Israeli science quarterly called "Odyssey". It is probably the first (and last) time I write something in Hebrew and then translate it. Somehow it doesn't feel right to write about science in Hebrew. The Hebrew source can be found here.

Although it is my ever lasting wish to write more interesting stuff in sciencebits, don't expect a significant increase (sorry). The reason now is that in a strange twist of fate, I am the head of the coordinating council of the heads of faculty unions of the 7 universities in Israel (capo dei capi...), well at least temporarily I hope. But I am always tempted to write! For example, just the other day I realized that the barometric readings I look at every day have a very conspicuous signal due to atmospheric tides! This signal can be used to learn the mass of our moon!

Other CRF climate effects

Wouldn't CRF also ionize molecules in other fluids, such as oceans and magma? And wouldn't magnetic field changes affect the movement in fluids? And magnetic field changes could affect geological stability.

Long Solar Cycles correlate with Volcanic Activity

About the long-term coordinated variations of the activity, radius, total irradiance of the Sun and the Earth's climate

"The 11-year cycle represents a simultaneous parallel change in both the activity level and the total irradiance of the Sun. So, in case of variations of the amplitude of the activity level - a power of a cycle - the amplitude of solar irradiance variations is expected to change correspondingly. The identical correlated course of the long-term variations of activity and luminosity of the Sun on the secular timescale has been observed earlier by Eddy (1976), and Borisenkov (1988). Moreover, according to the data of Borisenkov (1988), in each of 18 deep Maunder-type minima of solar activity, revealed over the span of the last 7500 years, the cooling of climate had been observed, while warming occurred during the periods of high maxima. Thus, the integral radiation has always been essentially higher at the maximum, and it had noticeably decreased at the minima. Therefore, quasi-periodic variations of the solar activity during both the 11-year cycle and 80- and 200-year cycles are accompanied by proportional variations of the integral flux of solar radiation, which result in geophysical effects. The main cause of climate change during the last millennia is the corresponding cyclic variation of the 80- and 200-year component of irradiance correlated with activity. That is why, the contemporary is not anomalous but is ordinary secular global warming (Aguilar 2003; Reid 2000), as well as previous similar cases of warming during the periods of secular activity growth is still mainly connected with an increase of the secular component of solar irradiance variation."

On long-term variations of the total irradiance and on probable changes of temperature in the Sun's core

"It is shown that the observable 11-year cyclic variation of the total irradiance of the Sun is caused by respective alterations of the radius and effective temperature of the photosphere, which are a consequence of fundamental global processes occurring deeply inside. The 11-year cyclic variation of "solar constant" almost entirely results from respective alterations of the area of the photosphere radiating surface as its effective temperature keeps practically constant. Hence, 11-year heliocycle represents the simultaneous coordinated fluctuation of the activity, radius and irradiance both for the phase and amplitude. The century component is first directly found in variations of "solar constant". We suppose that the observable long-term identical variations of activity, radius and irradiance are a result of the same processes occurring deeply inside and are coordinated by a global variation of the entire Sun which is caused by cyclic changes of temperature in the Sun's core. As this takes place, the long-term global variations of the whole Sun can serve the catalyst of the generation of solar cycles. We predict the approach of the following sufficiently deep minimum of activity, irradiance and radius of the 200-year cycle of the Sun near the year 2040+10. The minimum will be close to the level of the Maunder Minimum. "

aaron

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