I initially hesitated doing so because I do not condone hacking into or leaking private e-mails. Moreover, I believe that since the debate should be science based, it is irrelevant whether a group of people committed science fraud or not. Nevertheless, the e-mails did leak, and did become public knowledge ("climategate" now fetches 24,000,000 hits on google), and it is therefore a legitimate discussion topic.
Anyway, my one liner summary for it was that "it isn't news to me". In fact, this already propagated to 2000 or so pages (at least, so you find if you google "climategate" "shaviv" and "not news to me"), after Andrew Bolt (whom I happily met in Australia last week) picked it up from a comment I wrote here on sciencebits.com.
So, why is the climategate scandal "not news to me?"
Well, the e-mails demonstrated that:
- Elements within the global warming alarmists community do their best to inhibit "skeptics" like myself from getting their papers published. This includes for example coercing editors from accepting papers which do not follow the party line.
- Elements within the global warming alarmists community follow non orthodox (and non kosher...) methodologies, which include creative "cut" and "paste" data manipulation techniques, as borne from the e-mails.
So, what did I witness before? Here are a few exemplars.
- I witnessed how an editor rejected a paper I wrote without forwarding the reviewers my detailed response to their comments (he was perhaps afraid that the reviewers would actually be convinced with my detailed response which included detailed referrals to published results proving my points).
- I saw another rejection (perhaps by the same editor...), this time of a paper written by a colleague that included the punch line: "any paper which doesn’t support the anthropogenic GHG theory is politically motivated, and therefore has to be rejected"
- I saw how proposal reviewers bluntly reject funding requests, based on similar beliefs in the global warming apocalypse. I even know of someone who didn't get tenure because he advocated non party line ideas.
- I also saw how two Canadians tried to reconstruct the hockey stick only to find that some data mysteriously disappeared from a public ftp server.
But unethical or even fraudulent behavior is not relevant in a real scientific debate, something which incidentally the alarmists are avoiding. Nevertheless, the two unethical behaviors described above do undermine the underlying argumentation for an anthropogenically dominated global warming.
As I wrote a few times before (and will again in a summary I am now writing for sciencebits.com, stay tuned!), the case for an anthropogenic warming relies on two problematic arguments. First, 20th century warming is unprecedented, and therefore should be attributed to human activity. Second, the 20th century warming cannot be explained by any other mechanism other than anthropogenic greenhouse gases (in particular, if the human radiative forcing is omitted, the global circulation models cannot explain the 20th century warming).
The fraudulent "hockey stick" stood at the crux of the argument that 20th century global warming is unprecedented. It was used to eliminate the existence of the medieval warm period for example (this is not unlike George Orwell's 1984, in which people wake up one morning with a new history...). As the alarmists explain in their e-mails, the "hockey stick" is based on the manipulative "hockey stitch" where thermometer data was stitched after 1961 to disguise the fact that the reconstructed temperatures decrease). Thus, one cannot claim that the 20th century warming is unprecedented.
Second, given the apparent measures alarmists take to stop the publication of any non-conforming voice, the apparent lack of any alternative explanation to 20th century global warming should only be viewed as the alarmists success to quench alternative views, not that alternative views do not exist. Indeed, there is an alternative explanation which explains a non-negligible part of the 20th century global warming, it is the sun.



Thank-you
Thank-you for the Hockey Stich.
I wish every Ph.D. would have a blog and express just a few important views to present day happenings. It seems that today, the only people to comment are motivated by politics, business, or ignorance.
Brian
How can science fraud be irrelevant to science?
How can you say that ClimateGate is irrelevant to the scientific debate, since it throws doubt on the validity of one of the base temperature records used in the scientific debate? What could be more relevant than the possibility of fraudulent data?
As I mentioned in my post
there is some relevance, since it weakens the arguments of the anthropogenic global warming proponents. But given that I knew they were faulty arguments, they don't change the science in MY book. Moreover, they don't strengthen MY arguments which are based on the science I do. All that these e-mails do is expose something I already knew to be wrong.
Sorry...
You are wrong. The e-mails expose nothing of significance. Any claims of "inhibiting skeptics" or "coercing editors" are based on nothing but creationist-like quote-mining.
ah...
Then I am being paranoid. o.k., fine.
"men" misses the point,
Clearly (presuming one wishes to see, of course), your argument goes beyond the emails, using relevant personal events to bolster the contention that the emails reveal a widespread deception by the warming fanatics.
What isn't said is that these emails are only one tiny revelation in a grand scheme of scientific fraud that I have little doubt similar whistle blower email dumps from other CRUs would show.
I, too, have seen how politics and orthodoxy corrupt science. I would wager that a significant proportion of the AGW scientists direct their research as required by said orthodoxy, because their positions and funding are at risk.
As Harry Truman once said in response to someone saying "Give 'em hell, Harry!": "I don't give them hell. I tell them the truth and they think it is hell".
Keep up the good work, Shaviv!
Perspective
Here's a quick summary video of Greenland Ice Core results:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DFbUVBYIPlI
with Bibliography.
BTW, much of the material leaked was properly public, and was being illegally withheld from FOIA requests. So there's not much of a "privacy" case to be made.
Fail.
"was being illegally withheld from FOIA requests"
That's wrong. It was not their data in the first place. They had no right to respond to FOIA requests with other people's data. The data was merely licensed. Why didn't the requesters license the data instead of flooding the CRU with more than 50 requests within 5 days? Probably because this is yet another PR tactic rather than real science by the deniers.
Oh, and I guess that it is then
standard practice to delete data in such cases. Good to know.
You will have to know which data
To license the data from another source you will have to know which data to license. You can only know that if the CRU of East-Anglia gives away which data it has used to create its time series. Alas, that has been refused. To this day we still don't know which data is used, how it was manipulated, and the reasons for including this data and excluding others. That is CRUs work alltogether and they could have disclosed it without disclosing the underlaying data. Do you find their refusal to show what they've done defensible?
AGW fanatics don't realize
that the scientific method demands that all data underlying a published manuscript should be available for analysis and verification by other parties. "Peer reviewed" (nothwithstanding the way these alleged scientists corrupted that term) is not merely a review by magazine editors and boards, but review by other labs that should be able to duplicate one's results to ensure that they are valid, or examine some other aspect of it.
The email authors are unethical and frauds, and every single bit of their data must be critically and objectively reexamined.
CRU data goes public anyway
That's wrong. It was not their data in the first place. They had no right to respond to FOIA requests
With the British Meteorological Office's Hadley Centre stepping up to be the data librarian (28 Jan 2010) then this argument is moot. It is now public data.
This idea was put forward by one of the "two canadians" five years ago. It's good to see that at long last important data is now going to be properly archived so that it can be checked by all interested parties, which is much more important than it initially seems.
Lack of validation
What disturbed me most with the leaked emails and code was that is showed that the people at CRU and Pennsylvania State U was happy to use models that were not validated, and could not be validated because of hoorible residuals. In fact, they fitted data so badly in one case that they resorted to excluding data with the worst fit so to hide the mismatch between the model and real data. I'm not a scientist, but as an engineer, if I would do such a thing, and caused harm to other people, I would be liable for jail terms. It is an absolute NO-NO! And yet, the CRU is defended by many other scientists in the climate science community. I sometimes wonder if this discipline is science at all. (Remember that others in the trade have attempted to prove an hypothesis with AOGCM models, which in itself is just another hypothesis.)
Prove a hypothesis with another hypothesis? Trust a model that fit data worse than white noise? Trust source code that is in such a mess that the programmer isn't able to sort out data sources? Only in climate science...
Good point!
"Climate science" is becoming an oxymoron, thanks to these frauds.
Climategate and the "hockey stitch" - Not news to me.
Your clarification on Climategate - Not news to you has been illustrated well in the article....
well thanks for clarifying
well thanks for clarifying more on climategate, i read the whole and it was quite interesting.
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